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Combat Aircraft Market: Global Market Outlook 2009-2019 (AB082)
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World Air Forces are at various combat aircraft replacement and
upgrade cycles. Most NATO countries are in an active
replacement phase for their 1970s designed aircraft while
emerging nations such as India will evaluate entirely new
aircraft sources in the near future. More than 5,000 combat
aircraft will be entering service globally over the next decade,
with a peak of 524 deliveries in 2014.
Programs such the Lockheed Martin F-35 are set to dominate the
marketplace through 2029 while G2 Solutions expects aircraft
such as the Dassault Rafale to gain more traction on the export
market through 2014. “Rafale has had issues with some export
tenders this decade, due to a mix of unfavorable political
considerations and system overall technical maturity,” said
Michel Merluzeau, G2 Solutions’ Managing Partner. “However,
the outlook has improved, with market potential for Rafale
around 300 aircraft to 2019, more if it wins the Indian MMRCA
Airframes of concern this decade include the Saab Gripen and
Boeing F-15 Silent Eagle (SE). Gripen has been relatively
successful, but now competes for tenders in Brazil and India
where the aircraft is clearly at a disadvantage against the
Boeing F-18E or Dassault Rafale. Failure to gain additional
orders might see the program come to a standstill by 2015,
however there are smaller opportunities such as Argentina that
are possibly ideally suited for Gripen. “The upgraded F-15SE is
an interesting niche option for existing F-15 operators, but the
market opportunity window is tight and the addressable market is
probably less than a 100 aircraft” stated Merluzeau.
The study also highlights the remarkable longevity of the
Lockheed Martin F-16 series, soon to be supplanted by the F-35.
Thirty years since its entry in service, the G2 Solutions
analysis predicts that more than 200 F-16s have/will be
delivered between 2008 and 2019. Lockheed Martin will maintain
a commanding lead with a market share greater than 43%, ahead of
Boeing, AVIC1, Eurofighter-EADS and Dassault Aviation.
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